AfD on course to achieve ‘record’ result in German elections

Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) is ‘on course for a record result’ in the forthcoming German elections, with the far-right party projected to win 20% of the vote, according to YouGov.

YouGov’s central estimate projects that the AfD will finish in second place, with 142 of the 630 seats in the Bundestag – the best result for a far-right party in post-war Germany, and double the 10% the party won in 2021.

The conservative CDU/CSU are likely to retain a clear lead, however, with 29% of the vote, and are projected to win 207 seats,YouGov added.

The two centre-left parties, however, have seen little improvement in polling, with the Social Democrats (SPD) set to take 15% of the vote, and the Greens 13%.

‘Substantive shift’

‘There has been a substantive shift when it comes to parliamentary majorities,’ YouGov noted. ‘According to the model’s central estimate, a so-called grand coalition of the CDU/CSU and SPD would now have a wafer-thin majority in the Bundestag of just two. […] This suggests that a three-party coalition will be needed for the next government to be confident in securing parliamentary business.’

The rise of the AfD has been fuelled by growing public concern about immigration, with YouGov data noting that 56% of Germans now cite this as one of the country’s top three issues, rising to 82% among AfD voters.

Four fifths believe that immigration levels have been too high over the past decade, with 50% saying that immigration has been bad for Germany overall.

No to collaboration

However, despite the AfD’s gains, mainstream parties remain hesitant to collaborate with them, the data showed. While 46% of Germans oppose any cooperation with the AfD, 30% believe collaboration should be considered on a case-by-case basis, and 18% support working with the party.

According to YouGov, the election campaign has only served to deepen political divisions in Germany, with 76% of Germans believing the gap between democratic parties has widened, and 57% stating that they believe the country has moved further to the right. Four in five (80%) believe that coalition negotiations will be particularly challenging once the election is over.

Germany goes to the polls on 23 February. Read more here.