New projections from Statistics Austria indicate that the country’s population is set to continue to grow until 2080, with a 5.5% increase in population expected between now and 2040.
By 2040, the population of Austria will stand at 9.6 million, with particular growth seen in the 65+ age cohort.
This cohort will account for 26.7% of the population by 2040, up from 19.7% in 2023.
By 2080, Austria’s population will be approximately 10.2 million, Statistics Austria noted, of which 29.3% will be aged 65 or older.
Population milestone
“The population in Austria will reach the ten million mark by the end of the 2060s,” commented Statistics Austria director general Tobias Thomas. “The population growth is due entirely to immigration, without which the population would immediately shrink.
“But even with immigration, the population will age rapidly in the coming years: by 2040, the proportion of the 65+ age group will increase from the current 19.7% to 26.7% and the number of persons in the labour force will decrease. This will put funding pressure on pay-as-you-go systems such as pensions, long-term care and healthcare and increase pressures on the labour market.”
Thomas noted that while in 1950, there were around six people of working age for every person of retirement age, this has fallen to just three today, and will fall to two by 2040.
The immigration factor
Immigration is expected to contribute between 28,000 and 35,000 to Austria’s population annually in the long term. If immigration is excluded as a factor, Austria’s population would actually shrink, with the number of births is not sufficient to offset the number of deaths.
The labour force, which had peaked at 4.77 million in 2023, is expected to decrease by about 4.8% by 2040, with a continuing decline until 2062.
Projections indicate that the labour force will decline to 4.66 million by 2062 before experiencing a modest rebound to 4.75 million by 2080. If age- and sex-specific labour force participation rates remain constant at 2023 levels, the labuor force is expected to shrink by 3.4%, reaching 4.61 million by 2040.
Elsewhere, the data showed that population growth in the years to come is expected to be uneven across Austria’s provinces, with Vienna experiencing above-average growth due to migration, along with Lower Austria, Upper Austria and Vorarlberh. Elsewhere, Carinthia is expected to see a slight population decline of 1.4%.
In terms of future challenges, Austria will face increased pressure on public services like pensions, healthcare, and long-term care due to the growing proportion of elderly people and the shrinking working-age population. The labor force stagnation and the aging population will place a significant strain on Austria’s pay-as-you-go systems, such as pensions. Read more here.
