Poland has reported a foreign trade surplus of PLN 10.7 billion in the period from January to August 2024, with exports PLN 991.9 billion narrowly exceeding imports PLN 981.2 billion in the period.
This is a decline on the foreign trade surplus recorded by the country in the same period last year, which stood at PLN 34.6 billion, Statistics Poland said.
In comparison to the corresponding period of last year, exports decreased by 8.3%, and imports by 6.3%.
Exports in euro terms
In euro terms, exports amounted to €229.6 billion, while imports amounted to €227.1 billion, representing a decrease in exports of 2.2% and in imports of 0.1%.
The trade surplus stood at €2.4 billion in euro terms, compared to the positive balance of €7.5 billion in the corresponding period last year.
Poland’s trade with developed countries accounted for the majority of both exports and imports in the January to August period. Exports to developed countries accounted for 86.4% of total exports (with 73.9% going to the EU), while imports from developed countries made up 65.7% (with 53.5% from the EU).
These figures show a slight decline from the same period in 2023, when developed countries accounted for 86.8% of exports (75.1% from the EU) and 65.8% of imports (54.1% from the EU).
Key trading partners
Among Poland’s key trade partners, most reported declines in exports compared to the previous year, except for Ukraine, where exports grew by 7.7%, and the United States, where they increased by 0.4%. On the import side, the United States saw a notable increase of 9.9%, alongside smaller gains from Saudi Arabia (2.8%) and Norway (0.5%).
Trade with Poland’s top ten partners represented 66.3% of total exports, consistent with the same period in 2023, and 61.2% of total imports, a slight rise from 60.5% in 2023.
Germany remained Poland’s largest trade partner, but its share in exports fell by 1.2 percentage points to 27.0%, and its share in imports dropped by 0.4 pp to 19.6%. Poland’s trade surplus with Germany during this period amounted to PLN 74.9 billion, down from PLN 95.9 billion in the same period of 2023.
Analyst comment
Commenting on the data, Adam Antoniak, senior economist with ING in Poland said, “Recently, there has been a deterioration in the foreign trade balance, which may potentially be negative for the PLN exchange rate, but the current account balance surplus for the last 12 months is still notable. Imports are more robust than exports which leads to a widening trade gap.
“Still, the potential negative impact of rising foreign trade imbalance on the PLN should be compensated by the expected increase in the interest rate disparity in favour of Poland, as the National Bank of Poland is expected to keep policy rates unchanged in the coming months, while the Fed and the ECB are projected to continue monetary easing.” Read Statistics Poland‘s data here.
