While Poland has seen recent declines in construction and production output, its retail sector has “proved more resilient than expected”, according to ING.
Adam Antoniak, senior economist with ING in Poland, was commenting following the publication of data that showed that Poland’s retail sales increased by 4.4% in January, ahead of consensus. This follows on from an increase of 5.3% in December.
The biggest year-on-year increase in retail sales in January was seen in clothing and footwear (+17.6%) followed by furniture and household appliances (+10.5%) and pharmaceuticals (+9.6%).
Freezing temperatures
“After several mild winters in recent years, January 2026 caught many Poles by surprise with freezing temperatures and heavy snowfall, prompting them to update their wardrobes with clothing more suitable for colder conditions,” Antoniak commented.
Automotive sales were down 4.5% in January, reflecting recent regulatory changes – since the start of 2026, businesses have availed of less generous tax deductions for combustion-engine vehicle depreciation and leasing, while subsidies for the purchase of electric vehicles, under the NaszEauto programme, have also depleted.
Essential items
Spending on essential items, however, saw a “surprisingly robust sales dynamic”, Antoniak commented, with fuel sales up 4.6%, and food sales rising 4.2%, with the latter possibly linked to winter-related stockpiling.
“The full set of January data from the real economy points to some slowdown in economic activity at the start of 1Q26, and weather conditions throughout most of February were also difficult,” said Antoniak. “Some of the losses from the first two months may be recovered in March; however, GDP growth in the first quarter is likely to be slower than the 4.0%YoY posted in 4Q25. On the positive side, consumption growth remains sustained.”
ING has maintained its full-year GDP growth forecast for Poland at 3.7%. Read more here.
