The population of the Netherlands is set to reach 19 million by 2037, while by 2040, a quarter of the population will be aged 65 years or older, new data from Statistics Netherlands (CBS) has revealed.
According to the 2024-2070 Core Forecast, the population will reach 20 million by 2058, as the pace of growth slows over the coming decades, with increases largely driven by net migration and an increase in life expectancy.
Population growth in 2024
Statistics Netherlands estimates that in the full calendar year 2024, the population of the Netherlands will grow by 105,000 people, which is around 26,000 fewer than the previous year.
Immigration has been a significant contributor to population growth in the Netherlands in recent years, with increases reported in 2021, 2022 and 2023, following the COVID-19 pandemic. Over the past two years, many of the new arrivals came from Ukraine, due to the war there.
Over the coming years, the immigration rate is expected to remain strong, even though it is anticipated to fall somewhat, while emigration will rise as some migrants return home. At the same time, immigration is still projected to exceed emigration.
The birth rate is also set to increase over the coming years, due to an increase in the population of women of childbearing age, however between 2028 and 2040, more deaths than births are predicted. After 2040, the situation is set to reverse again.
The number of children born every year peaked in 2021, following which the birth rate has been declining, Statistics Netherlands said.
Older population
The proportion of people aged 65 and over will rise from nearly 21% in 2024 to 25% by 2040, due to higher life expectancy.
Allied to this, the number of older people in the Netherlands is expected to stabilise between 2040 and 2050, but it will rise again after 2050, particularly as the large millennial generation reaches retirement age.
By 2070, the number of people aged 65 and over is projected to reach 2.1 million. As a result of an aging population, the proportion of the working-age population (aged 20-64) will decline from 59% in 2024 to 54% by 2070.
As regards young people (aged between 0 and 19 years), there were 3.7 million people in this age bracket as of this year, and the population of young people is expected to remain stable in the short term, accounting for around 20% of the population.
‘Future trajectory’
‘In order to forecast the future trajectory of the Dutch population, CBS uses a simulation model based on assumptions about the birth rate, mortality rate, immigration and emigration,’ Statistics Netherlands said. ‘This forecast is uncertain, however. Migration, for example, can fluctuate significantly from year to year.
‘It is also uncertain whether the increase in life expectancy will continue at the same rate and whether Dutch people will continue to prefer having two children per family. What we can say is that in 2070, the population will most likely be somewhere between 18.8 million and 22.3 million. Read more here.
