Retail sales at constant prices rose by 1.3% in Poland in October 2024, compared to the same month the previous year, new data from Statistics Poland has shown.
This marks a slowdown from the 2.8% year-on-year growth recorded by the sector in October, 2023, however on a month-on-month basis (compared to September 2024), sales were up 7.8%.
During the period from January to October 2024, retail sales grew by 2.4% year-on-year, a positive shift from the 2.6% decline seen in the corresponding period last year.
Increase in sales
Leading the charge for the month was the ‘motor vehicles, motorcycles, and parts’, which recorded a 24.1% increase in sales in October 2024, while ‘pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, and orthopaedic equipment’ was up 9.6%, and ‘newspapers, books, and other sales in specialised stores’ rose by 1.8%.
On the other hand, categories to see a decline included food, beverages, and tobacco products, which reported a 1.2% decrease in sales, while businesses selling solid, liquid, and gaseous fuels recorded a drop in sales of 9.1%, Statistics Poland noted.
‘Eases concerns’
Commenting on the retail sales data, Rafal Benecki and Adam Antoniak, economists with ING, said that it “eases concerns about the economy’s recovery after a very weak retail performance in September, largely driven by one-off events (the impact of floods on consumer behaviour and activities). Consumption remains the main recovery driver, but the second half of 2024 shows a slowdown compared to the first half.
“Given the better-than-expected industrial production data for October and the rejection of the most pessimistic retail sales scenarios, we still see potential for GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2024 of around 3% YoY, compared to 2.7% YoY in the third quarter of this year and 2.7% for 2024 overall.”
The analysts expect a ‘rebound’ in circumstances next year, which would facilitate an acceleration of economic growth to 3.5%. Read more here and here.
