Economic experts in Germany are somewhat sceptical about the contribution artificial intelligence can make to economic growth, according to a new survey published by the ifo Institute.
The findings were taken from the Economic Expert Survey (EES), conducted by EconPol and the ifo Institute, which gathered responses from 600 economic experts in Europe and around 100 in the US, during the fourth quarter of last year.
As it found, respondents in Germany and across Europe estimated that AI would increase economic growth by 1.5 percentage points over the next five years, equivalent to around 0.3 percentage points annually.
Experts in the United States were more optimistic, estimating growth effects of 2.5 percentage points over the same period, or 0.5 percentage points per year.
Less optimistic
“One reason for the less optimistic assessment in Germany may be due to regulation,” commented Oliver Falck, Director of the ifo Center for the Economics of Innovation and Digital Transformation. “Germany is the only country in which almost half of the experts advocate less regulation of artificial intelligence.”
At a global level, most respondents to the survey were in favour of tighter AI regulation. In the United States, around two thirds (64%) of respondents said they wanted more regulation, while the average across the European Union stood at 50%.
In Germany, however, only 27% supported stronger regulation, while 46% said they would prefer less regulation.
“A balanced regulatory framework is needed so that countries can capitalise on the opportunities presented by AI and mitigate any potential negative consequences,” commented Niklas Potrafke, director of the ifo Center for Public Finance and Political Economy.
“Such rules should not, however, stifle innovation. They should create legal certainty with regard to data use, data protection, and liability,”
Labour market expectations
The survey also examined expectations for the labour market. Around 61% of European respondents said they expected AI to reduce the number of medium-skilled jobs over the next decade. In the United States, 68% shared that view.
At the same time, many respondents expected growth in high-skilled employment. In Europe, 53% predicted an increase in high-skilled jobs, while 48% of respondents in the United States expected similar growth. The number of low-skilled jobs was expected to remain stable or increase slightly.
“In view of demographic change, AI should be regarded more as an opportunity and less as a risk for the labour market,” Potrafke added. “Opportunities for continuing education and retraining for the existing workforce play a key role here.” Read more here.
