The population of Luxembourg could reach one-million inhabitants by 2070, driven by migration and economic growth, STATEC, the country’s statistics body, has said.
According to the statistics body, which made its projections based on European demographic forecasts from Eurostat, four different potential growth scenarios are possible – under the most conservative scenario, the population would rise to 944,000 by 2070.
Under the most optimistic scenario, meanwhile, based on positive productivity and economic assumptions, Luxembourg would have 1.067 million inhabitants by 2070.
Luxembourg’s population currently stands at around 691,000.
Migration the key driver
STATEC said migration would remain the dominant driver of population growth, having accounted for roughly 80% of demographic expansion over recent decades.
All projections point to continued population growth until at least the middle of the century, although growth is expected to slow in lower-productivity scenarios from the mid-2050s onwards.
STATEC estimates net migration could range between 3,300 and 7,500 people annually by 2070, depending on economic conditions.
The projections also point to a gradually ageing population. The average age in Luxembourg is expected to rise from around 40 today to between 46 and 48 by 2070. However, STATEC said sustained immigration in higher-growth scenarios would help moderate the effects of ageing by increasing the working-age population.
Life expectancy is also expected to continue increasing. By 2070, STATEC projects life expectancy at birth to reach 90.3 years for women and 86.7 years for men.
Different approaches
As STATEC noted, Eurostat adopts an approach ‘based on past trends: net migration is estimated using the average of flows observed over the last ten years, adjusted towards a long-term value common to all EU countries. This method, which is robust for countries with ‘standard’ demographics, does not capture the close link that exists in Luxembourg between economic climate and migration flows: it can lead to revisions when recent reference years are unusual (such as during the COVID years or periods of strong growth).
‘STATEC, on the other hand, incorporates net migration into its eco-demographic model: flows of foreign workers reflect the relative attractiveness of Luxembourg’s income levels, which is itself determined by productivity gains relative to neighbouring countries. This approach anchors migration projections in economic fundamentals and makes them less sensitive to one-off shocks, resulting in greater stability in forecasts.’ Read more here.
