The Romanian economy is seeing “signs of life”, ING has said, following flash estimates that indicate that the economy grew by 1.6% in the third quarter of the year, compared to the corresponding period a year earlier.
Valentin Tataru, chief economist, Romania, at ING, was commenting following the publication of data that indicated that for the first nine months of the year, Romania’s economy is 0.8% above that for the same period in 2024.
On a quarter-on-quarter basis, however, the Romanian economy contracted by 0.2% in Q3 2025.
‘Economic stagnation’
“Until now, the hard frequency data has been consistent with third-quarter economic stagnation,” Tataru commented. “Retail sales contracted by 0.2% annually, industrial production expanded by 0.5%, while construction activity will probably show quite a robust expansion once the full data set for the third quarter is released.
“The labour market, however, is showing some mild signs of weakness, as the number of employees in the economy declined in September for the sixth consecutive month, and wage growth is drifting towards very low single digits. This combination should keep a lid on private consumption in the near term, with real wage growth likely to stay negative for a few more quarters.”
Full-year revision
While the positive data would ordinarily prompt ING to an upward revision of its full-year growth estimate for Romania, which currently stands at 0.3%, Tataru added that “data revisions” remain likely, following adjustments made to previous quarters.
“We will wait for the detailed GDP breakdown on 5 December before revisiting this [full year] projection,” he commented. “At the same time, we maintain our forecast for 2026 at 1.4% which, after today’s data, looks less like a mildly optimistic view and more like a plausible central scenario.” Read more here.
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